(topic changed)... Hurricane Isabel (see last few posts)

[tommy]

Check out weather.com and look at the tropical update. Fabian is a category 4 hurricane, 140 mph winds. Thankfully, the cold front that is stretching from Texas up to the Northeast, will push Fabian out to sea by the time it gets a whole lot closer to us. (It's supposed to take a NW turn soon, it's headed west at the moment, further south in the Atlantic.)

[Turbulence]

That's one heckuva organized storm...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

[Stormbringer]

I realize and *really* hope it's premature to say this, but Fabian's path looks eerily similar to Fran so far. I've been keeping my eyes peeled at forecasts, hoping to see mention of a cold front or something that will fend off Fabian...the last thing this area needs after such a wet summer is a hurricane, especially a Category Four-Five one. With all the rain we've had making the ground super soft, there's strong potential for forests to be literally cleared if Fabian hits... :eek: :eek2: :crazy:

I'll seriously never forget looking at Fran when it was just about where Fabian is now, and saying/thinking to myself "Y'know, if that thing starts going northwest, it may hit here."...talk about famous last words. :eek2: :crazy:

[tommy]

Here's the current projection, as far as its path goes:

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm10/projectedpath_large.html

(wont let me put the picture on this site)

[StormShaman]

Welp, looks like it's time for me to perform the Ritual of Hurricane-Diversion.

*goes to the store to buy flashlight batteries, bottled water, and other bad-weather necessities*

[VandyCane]

Here is another site with various computer models. Hopefully these are right. I know CPL has been preparing since last week "just in case."
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200310_model.html

[shill22]

we haven't had too much luck with hurricanes that start with "f"(Fran/Fliyed) and those came in September! let's hope history doesn't repeat itself.

[Stormbringer]

we haven't had too much luck with hurricanes that start with "f"(Fran/Fliyed) and those came in September! let's hope history doesn't repeat itself.

Ah yes, good ol' Floyd...I'll never forget a little snippet the N&O did regarding that where they "asked" Floyd the barber from The Andy Griffith Show what to do about the hurricane sporting his name. His "answer"? (Which was a quote from an episode of the aforementioned show.) "I'm gonna go to Nashville." Which, they said actually wouldn't have done any good because Floyd was so huge that even Nashville, TN could have been affected if Floyd had directly hit and completely gone through North Carolina, and not just the coastal plain/eastern half. :eek2: :crazy:

[tommy]

According to weather.com, Fabian has just started to make its move; instead of west, it is heading WNW. It's winds are now up to 145 mph, a solid category 4 storm (as of 5pm). My hope is that, if its already starting its move that far out, maybe it will pass by the Eastern Seaboard alltogether. Still to early to tell, but the experts are saying there's a good chance it will be knocked back out to sea.

[Jeff O Rocks]

we haven't had too much luck with hurricanes that start with "f"(Fran/Fliyed) and those came in September! let's hope history doesn't repeat itself.

I was thinking the exaxct same thing...and then there was Floyd!! :sad:

[MeanGene]

If it comes close, I plan on going to the beach. I love thunderstorms, tornados, and hurricanes. The ones that dont hurt anyone anyway!

[Turbulence]

I love thunderstorms, tornados, and hurricanes.

As do I...my third love behind Aviation and Hockey. :spin:
This kind of thing excites me...nothing more fun to watch than the progression of a major hurricane...

[Guyute]

Yeah, I used to love extreme weather.

Once you own a house (especially one surrounded by 140ft pine trees that have a diameter of a whole 2ft).... your outlook changes Drastically.

there's nothing in the world like watching pines bend in half and make that God-awful creaking noise right over top of your house.

[tommy]

I love thunderstorms, tornados, and hurricanes.

As do I...my third love behind Aviation and Hockey. :spin:
This kind of thing excites me...nothing more fun to watch than the progression of a major hurricane...

Totally... it's this weird fascination with its intensity and its capabilities.... it's really amazing... when I was in 4th grade, when Fran was coming, I used to wake up at 5am to go watch the 5-minute tropical update on the weather channel...

[Shell]

(p.s, hopefully if nothing else, these huge organized hurricanes are a good omen for the Canes!)

[Shell]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/081203W5.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

[Jeff O Rocks]

I don't like the look of the projected path for Isabel!! :crazy:

[Guyute]

nope. not a'tall.

sustained at 135mph already, and has plenty of room to build up more speed. :eek:

[guinevere]

I'm having Hugo flashbacks :eek2: ... I was working in Charleston- in a hospital on the waterfront during Hugo. I want my mommy...

[e2ipiand1]

I moved down here from Michigan in September 1998. Which means I just missed Floyd. If Isabel hits, it'll be my first hurricane.

[Jeff O Rocks]

I moved down here from Michigan in September 1998. Which means I just missed Floyd. If Isabel hits, it'll be my first hurricane.

Let's hope that you are spared that experience...after Fran, I can tell you, it is not a pleasant experience...no power and no water for a week when it is still very warm!! :crazy:

[HockeyFan]

I love Hurricanes to be honest! I would love to relive Fran as long as I knew I wouldnt get hurt....but with 135 mph winds....and more room to grow....and the prjected path (with the possibility of it coming here) sorta makes me go uhhhh ohhhhh! Oh well, no school if it hits.....LITERALLY! lol

[Adrenaline]

OK! Kenny you are officially an idiot in my book...you get 20 minutes in the penalty box for that crap...whats wrong with you...hurricanes kill people and cause tons of damage...and say as long as YOU wouldnt get hurt??? What about other people??? :eek2:

[HockeyFan]

haha Fran was cool if you look back on it. Im just sayin I like it. Maybe other people dont...but it was fun. haha

[Adrenaline]

what the f*ck no it wasnt....people died...power out...trees everywhere...bugs laying eggs everywhere cuz of moisture...all that makeup classwork...if thats ur sense of fun then whoa buddy! :eek2:

[Guyute]

in about 10 years when you own a nice house, nice car(s), nice toys, have your own family, etc....

tell me how much you like natural distruction of that magnitude in your back yard.

:roll:

[Jillsdad]

Kenny, kenny Keny, I dare say if you lived down here in good ol Wilmington, your thoughts on Fran would be quite a bit different. My friend, winds of 75 mph while fast, are nothing compared to winsd of 115 with gusts to 130. When you cannot even open the side door to your house due to the suction that the winds create then tell me you want to relive Fran.


One other thing, FLoyd was in September of 1999 not 1998 so epi you were here in NC for Floyd.

[Stormbringer]

I don't like the look of the projected path for Isabel!! :crazy:

nope. not a'tall.

sustained at 135mph already, and has plenty of room to build up more speed. :eek:

And I thought Fabian looked frightening... :eek2: :crazy:

[CaniacManiac]

Yep, I lived in Wilmington during Fran and it was not something that I would enjoy going through again. Trees on cars and houses, no power, no water if you lived in the county with wells, flooded buildings, being stuck in the house with boarded up windows and scared kids. Nope, not my idea of fun.

My kids still live there and I worry about them everytime a hurricane gets close.

CaniacManiac

[HockeyFan]

sorry y'all...Im just bored lol! I wanted to get something going. I will admit it was very scary during the time...but I see everyones point.

[tommy]

according to weather.com, Hurricane Isabel's wind speeds are up to 160 miles per hour now, almost a category 5 hurricane. As for its projected path, unfortunately it does not look very promising right now. It will most likely hit the Eastern Seabord, but it's too early to tell exactly where. It could be anywhere from South Florida, to almost missing the east coast... but it really is a big, powerful storm right now.

[tommy]

its path so far:
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm13/index_large.html
close up satellite:
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm13/isabelcloseupsatellite_large.html
projected path:
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm13/projectedpath_large.html

[Shell]

To be selfish for a moment.... *ugh* we have a deep sea fishing trip planned in a week and a half.. friends/family flying in.. I hope we can go :(

It is a category 5 now..

Bulletin
Hurricane isabel advisory number 23
Nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
5 pm ast thu sep 11 2003

...extremely dangerous isabel now at category five intensity...

Satellite images indicate that hurricane isabel has continued to
Strengthen...and has reached category five intensity on the
Saffir-simpson hurricane scale. Isabel is the first category five
Hurricane in the atlantic basin since mitch of 1998.

At 5 pm ast...2100z...the center of hurricane isabel was located
Near latitude 21.6 north... Longitude 55.3 west or about 500
Miles...805 km...east-northeast of the northern leeward island.

Isabel is moving toward the west near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and this
General motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher
Gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next
24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
From the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
To 185 miles...295 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 921 mb...27.20 inches.

Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are likely over
Portions of the leeward islands...the virgin islands...and puerto
Rico over the next several days.

Repeating the 5 pm ast position...21.6 n... 55.3 w. Movement
Toward...west near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
Winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 921 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national
Hurricane center at 11 pm ast.

Forecaster Pasch

[nccanes]

God. I've got to call my tree man and get the rest of these ice-storm-weakened trees down. :crazy:

[Caniac]

Please God, make this thing turn out to sea. I don't want to have to go home to my parents place (near Atlantic Beach, on the water) and board up windows and crap like that, then worry to death about the place.

Really, we've had a good run of no hurricanes for a while, let's not ruin a perfectly good streak, ok God? Please?

Caniac (Nervous)

[VandyCane]

I don't like the looks of this thing. First I was worried about my family in Puerto Rico, now that they will probably be ok, I'm starting to get worried about us. My daughter's name is Isabel....I would hate for her to grow up being remembered as a bad hurricane. :crazy:

[Shell]

LOL Vandy... if it makes you feel any better. my mom-in-law is named Fran and I have never even thought about it until you mentioned it lol

[cmw00]

Really, we've had a good run of no hurricanes for a while, let's not ruin a perfectly good streak, ok God? Please?

Well thats just it...

Unfortinatley I'd say its about time our luck started running out.

2 choices I'd say, florida or us. Doesn't seem like many hit GA or SC. This one sounds particularly nasty, and I don't want to go through it....

[Turbulence]

My daughter's name is Isabel....I would hate for her to grow up being remembered as a bad hurricane. :crazy:

And my name is Andrew... :eek2:

As much as I love seeing extreme weather...I think I can live without seeing this thing hit the US. A Category 5 hitting a populated area would be the worst thing imagineable...and would produce carnage that would better my namesake in '92. The path of this storm gives a good possibility that it could hit our coast.

All the more reason to live in Iowa...

[Stormbringer]

My daughter's name is Isabel....I would hate for her to grow up being remembered as a bad hurricane. :crazy:

And my name is Andrew... :eek2:

As much as I love seeing extreme weather...I think I can live without seeing this thing hit the US. A Category 5 hitting a populated area would be the worst thing imagineable...and would produce carnage that would better my namesake in '92. The path of this storm gives a good possibility that it could hit our coast.

All the more reason to live in Iowa...

I recently read an article about recent research showing that Andrew actually turned out to be a Category 5 instead of the Category 4 everyone and everything thought it was when it hit southern Florida. I'll never forget another article I read sometime ago about Andrew and the damage it caused. Especially a part that mentioned a family in a closet somewhere in their house hanging on for their dear lives, and a gust of wind and rain blew through and literally pulverized the wall the family was leaning against...before they knew what had happened, there was nothing but soaked sheetrock in the father's hands.

As I said before, and I thought Fabian was scary...Isabel's path looks even more eerily similar to Fran's. Not to mention more powerful than both aforementioned storms. My brother's been heavily tracking Isabel, and says that it's beautiful and frightening at the same time how organized and strong the storm has become. Most weather reports I've seen are currently saying Isabel's path is highly dependant on a high pressure system and the shape it takes. If it stretches out into the ocean and covers the Southeastern U.S., it might cause Isabel to remain on a westward path towards Florida. But if the high remains circular and afloat over the Atlantic, that might cause Isabel to take a Carolinian/Mid-Atlantic vacation. :crazy:

Even the mere thought of Isabel makes me feel a bit uneasy right now... :crazy:

[Jeff O Rocks]

We better pray for a cold front to push this thing away...the last thing I saw the winds were 161 mph....Fran was only 80 and look at what she did to us!! :eek: :sad: :roll:

[Jillsdad]

Couple of things to add to the conversation. I have plotted the tracks of both Fran and Floyd on my current tracking map and as of now Isabel is farther north than either one. IF it stays farther north remains to be seen. As for wind speed, all the "experts" say that storms stay at category 5 status for only a very short time and then weaken. The official forecast is for Isabel to weaken to 110 kts(130 mph) by the 5th day out. As for Fran, yes she was only at 80 when she hit the Raleighwood area, but when she visited here in Wilmington she packed winds of 115 mph gusting to 130. Not fun. I also said after Fran that she was my limit for staying. ANything stronger and I was packing up the family and visiting inland somewhere. So if I knock on your door middle of next week, don't be surprised.

[tommy]

That's true: these storms that develop into such intense storms out at sea, normally weaken a bit before they hit... but still, it's not like it will disappear. The projected path for the hurricane, from weather.com, certainly has changed since yesterday. This pressure system developing really will be a key factor.

And it's good to know that this one is further north than Fran was...

[Shell]

Officials Advise N.C. Residents To Prepare For A Hurricane
POSTED: 8:36 a.m. EDT September 12, 2003
UPDATED: 8:43 a.m. EDT September 12, 2003

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- It's too early for forecasters to guess exactly where --or if -- Hurricane Isabel will hit.

But that hasn't stopped worried officials in North Carolina from brushing up on evacuation plans.

With 160 mph winds and a path that has the entire East Coast nervous, Hurricane Isabel on Thursday became the first Atlantic storm in five years to reach Category 5 strength.

"It's going to be a very close call," said Peter Childs, a hurricane researcher at the N.C. State Climate Office.

Emergency officials along the eastern part of the state on Thursday were asking people to start getting ready for a hurricane now. "We are in the middle of a very active hurricane season," said Mark Goodman, director of Onslow County Emergency Management. "It is just prudent to make kits and plans."

Two forces are at play: a trough of air over the central United States and a high-pressure ridge over the Atlantic.

The ridge's winds are pushing Isabel directly into the Southeast, with a chance it could strike anywhere from Florida to the Carolinas. But if the trough pushes eastward later next week, it could steer Isabel farther up the coast, possibly brushing the Outer Banks or forcing it back out to sea.

Isabel's track, size and intensity are very close to Hurricane Hugo's a week before it made landfall near Charleston in 1989 and cut a swath of destruction as far inland as Charlotte, Childs said.

Isabel is also the first hurricane to reach Category 5 since Mitch in 1998 -- which killed thousands of people in Central America -- and the first since Hugo to do so this far east, said Richard Knabb, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

It's unlikely to stay that way, though. Intense hurricanes generally fluctuate in strength, Knabb said, but there's nothing at this point that would weaken Isabel below a Category 3, with winds from 111 to 130 mph.

The storm is expected to follow its current track for the next four or five days. Moving at about 10 mph, it won't threaten the eastern United States until Thursday at the earliest.

While Isabel bears a resemblance to Hugo, the rivers, lakes and groundwater in the Carolinas are reminding climatologists of the conditions before Hurricane Floyd hit in 1999, spawning monster floods that killed more than 40 people and damaged or destroyed about 67,000 homes.

Floyd arrived a week after Hurricane Dennis saturated the eastern third of the Carolinas.

This year's heavy spring and summer storms could have a similar effect, said Ryan Boyles with the N.C. State Climate Office. Much of the state has received 50 percent more rain than normal.

"It's not going to take much before it all goes to runoff," he said. "If we have a lot of rain out of this storm, we could see some real problems."

The saturated soil could contribute to wind damage as well, Boyles said. Trees are more easily toppled by storms when the ground under them is soggy.

State officials and utilities used the advance warning of Isabel to ramp up their preparations Thursday.

"This thing is a monster," said Guynn Savage with Duke Power in Charlotte, whose in-house meteorologists are closely watching the storm. Duke officials met earlier this week with county emergency management directors from throughout the Carolinas.

Residents can put together a family disaster kit with water, non-perishable food, flashlights, batteries and a radio. Even if Isabel avoids eastern North Carolina, the kit could come in handy should another hurricane strike the region.

Goodman said residents should also put together a hurricane plan that details whether they will evacuate, where they will go and what they will do.

"This is certainly a storm to be watched," Goodman said. "The storm is 600 miles wide. It doesn't have to come here to impact us. It has 60 miles of hurricane force winds extending from the center."

If Isabel does threaten the state, coastal residents buying plywood to board up their homes will find prices at all-time highs.

Supplies of plywood are low nationally, due in part to wet weather in the East and fires in the West. But home-improvement stores say they're having no problem staying stocked at their normal levels.

[Jeff O Rocks]

"This is certainly a storm to be watched," Goodman said. "The storm is 600 miles wide. It doesn't have to come here to impact us. It has 60 miles of hurricane force winds extending from the center."



:crazy:

[Guyute]

not good. not good at all.

I'm praying it blows northward... but I'm not so sure it will.

[guinevere]

This reminds me so much of Hugo. We had to move patients into the halls and tie doors shut with sheets because of the pressure. One nurse broke her are trying to get a child out of a room and the door slamming on it. Our maintenance guys had to tie themselves to the roof to handpump the generators to keep the ventilators going. The water totally flooded our first floor and we had a yacht in the parking lot. :crazy: I"m having flashbacks..sorry.

I know some people think these things are fun but they haven't been in one like this before. :eek2:

[Guyute]

Our maintenance guys had to tie themselves to the roof to handpump the generators to keep the ventilators going.
wow. how's that for a job!


I know some people think these things are fun but they haven't been in one like this before. :eek2:

yup. or just think that death and destruction is cool. /shrug.

I'm not a prayin man... but I will be for the next week. count on that.

[CaniacManiac]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200313.track.html

I've been using this site to track Isabel. I find that it's pretty complete with maps and coordinates. She really has me concerned with her size and strength. We bought a generator a couple of months ago and joked that now that we had it we'd never have another power outage. Let's just hope that we were correct.

CaniacManiac

[Guyute]

we're buying one on the way home today. hopefully after spending more money than we really can, in order to be prepared, we won't need it.

though, meant to buy one after the last ice storm and just haven't come around to spending that much money. pricey as hell... good to have though.

[Jillsdad]

Wunderground is a good site as is intellicast. Ipersonally find though, if you can undesatnd the jargon, the national Hurricane center's website is the best. This allows you to read what the forecasters are thinking and why they come up with tracks and estimates and the sort. Also has great satellite imagery of the storms as they churn across the Atlantic. I have included the link below.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[SouthernHockeyChick]

we're buying one on the way home today. hopefully after spending more money than we really can, in order to be prepared, we won't need it.

though, meant to buy one after the last ice storm and just haven't come around to spending that much money. pricey as hell... good to have though.

I'm staying at your house!!! If I can get there.... ;)

Seriously, I haven't lived down here when a hurricane has come through so I have no idea what to expect. When I was in high school is when Hugo came through where I grew up (Wilkesboro, NC) and that was huge down there. By the time it got to us it was more like a tornado than a Hurricane. But we had no power for 18 days and we still had to walk about a half a mile into our house for a week or so after that because of all the downed trees. I was in my house by myself while huge pine trees feel all over it. Luckily only one actually came through the roof. Anyway, none of that was fun. And being twice the age now as I was then it should be even less fun if anything like that happens now. :crazy:

But you know, I can deal with trees down and power outages etc.....I just don't want my house to be flooded!

[guinevere]

You're more than welcome to stay with me. I don't have a generator but we will have hot water. Seriously.. my door is open. :)

[Guyute]

I'm sure we can take you in too Angie. hehe
make sure you bring your own beer though!!!! ;)

you know damn well I'll have my PS2, TV, etc... running. gotta have something to do! :p

unfortunately, since we're doing this a little late... I don't think we'll have time to hook it up to the breaker box... so hot water will probably not be running. although, I'd really need to spend more like $2000 to have a genny that did hot water, ac, and all of the indoor stuff. no way we can do that. have to settle for having minimal power for about $600. lol

[SouthernHockeyChick]

You people are really gonna hate having offered when I show up on your doorstep! :evil: So, we're all showering at Guin's and being entertained at Guy's....who is feeding us? :p

I'm sure we can take you in too Angie. hehe
make sure you bring your own beer though!!!! ;)


You find a way to get the AC going (if it's hot) and I'll bring YOUR beer, too. ;)

What's more likely is that the storm will miss us completely down here and you'll all be at MY house!
:crazy:

[Jillsdad]

Having been through a few of these *******s the generator is the best investment you can make. If you get one that is 5000 watts you can pretty much power the whole house except for A/C and Water heater. If you run out of hot water though, turn off everything in the house and bring up the water heater and a 5000 watt generator will run it to reheat the water. That is of cource if you have it running through your breaker box or backfed through your dryer outlet.

[Shell]

shweeet.. party.. when can we expect you Angie?? Lol.. and luckily it is a short jaunt to Jen's house for showers :p You know me, I'll be cooking!

If the power goes out, most of you guys know where we live :o)

[Guyute]

SHC-- we have more camping gear than a couple should have... and a couple cases of propane. bring what you want cooked, we'll be ok. ;)

JD- going to buy a 5000/6250 gen. I'm not going to go with a 12000 so I can run everything. plus, like I said, for this one, we'll be running off extension cords/power strips.
Our dryer has had some problems (not heating), but it's not the dryer... I think it's electrical. otherwise I'd be very interested in trying the backfeed deal. a friend mentioned doing that, and it seemed almost as good as a direct link to the box.
However, with it likely being an electrical problem... I'm not going to risk our emergency power on it.

[SouthernHockeyChick]

OK....you go throwing in this huge get-together thingie and I'm sorta looking forward to the storm (not really). When's this ***** supposed to hit? ;)

[Guyute]

lol... if it's all the same, I hope she turns north immediately. in hopes that I get to go out fishing this weekend with family and long lost friends.

but... they're currently projecting a Thursday landfall.
but that's just outside the 5day projection... I'd say by the end of the weekend we should have a real good idea of what's going on.

[Guyute]

oh, for those curious about generators, or may be considering what it would take (in cost) to run what you want... here's a very good site.
http://www.powerprotection.org/powergeneration/homewattage.shtml

that particular page shows what appliances and such normally "cost" to run. don't count on AC unless you're rich, and buy a "home standby system"... which... cost about as much as the avg used car (in good condition).

[JaroFan]

in about 10 years when you own a nice house, nice car(s), nice toys, have your own family, etc....

tell me how much you like natural distruction of that magnitude in your back yard.

:roll:

Not to mention we have our house on the market. During Fran, before we moved in, a tree went through the roof. Jeesh! I won't be sleeping here if it hits!

[nccanes]

This totally sucks, sucks, sucks - for whomever it affects. :mad:

Check out this language:

(CNN) -- The most powerful storm in the Atlantic Ocean in nearly five years, Hurricane Isabel rolled west far from land early Friday, with maximum sustained winds of nearly 160 mph (256 km/h).

Isabel is a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane strength. Hurricanes are ranked 1 to 5 on the scale.

At 5 p.m. EDT, Isabel was 350 miles (565 kilometers) northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, moving steadily to the west at 9 mph (14 km/h), according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

There has not been a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Mitch in 1998. That giant storm slammed into Central America and sped across Florida into the North Atlantic. Mitch caused more than 9,000 deaths in Central America from flooding and mudslides.

The last Category 5 hurricane to hit the United States was Andrew in 1992.

The hurricane center's forecasters said Isabel could experience some "temporary weakening" Friday and predicted a gradual weakening over the coming five days. ( :angel: Please God)

Isabel's current direction could put it on the path toward the Bahamas and the U.S. East Coast, but forecasters said it is still too early to predict accurately.

Residents in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are being warned of possible large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions over the next several days, but no storm warnings or watches have been issued.

Forecast paths for the next five days show Isabel staying over open ocean, well north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and south of Bermuda.

If the storm moves on that path, the Bahamas could be affected by Tuesday, forecasters said.

[Jeff O Rocks]

Go away Isabel!! :mad: :roll: The path I saw today, has her contiuously moving west to make landfall...looks like she could go right over the top of us.....hopefully a cold front will push her out to sea... :roll:

[Shell]

This pic Icy Red posted elsewhere is mind blowing...

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/images/isabel091103-1745z.jpg

(too big to post)

[Jillsdad]

Not out of the woods yet, but things are beginning to look a little better. The NHC keeps shifting the forecast track to the right and if so it is beginning to look more and more like nasty Isabel might miss us. I hope she misses the entire east coast but as long as she misses us I will breathe a big sighof relief. We have had our share of these monsters in the last 8 years.

[Jeff O Rocks]

From what I saw on the weather this morning, if she continues on her path without turning, she will run right over Cuba and into Mexico if she stays together. she is moving West slowly...her winds were down to 150 this morning...

[Shell]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/131618W5.gif *eep*

(I realize this pic auto-updates so hopefully it will look much different soon!)

[Jeff O Rocks]

From that pic, do you all get the feeling that there should be a big red bullseye where the NC is??????? :eek2: :sad:

[StormShaman]

*sigh*

This is SO us. It's just not a Hurricanes training camp unless something messed-up happens.

I just wish that the "something messed-up" was something that's far less messed-up than a fraggin' hurricane.

[Guyute]

omg. that damn well better go more N than they're thinking as of today.

arrrrgh. not good. not good at all.

[Shell]

*sigh*

This is SO us. It's just not a Hurricanes training camp unless something messed-up happens.

I just wish that the "something messed-up" was something that's far less messed-up than a fraggin' hurricane.

If nothing else, I think it bodes very well for the upcoming season!

[SouthernHockeyChick]

*sigh*

This is SO us. It's just not a Hurricanes training camp unless something messed-up happens.

I just wish that the "something messed-up" was something that's far less messed-up than a fraggin' hurricane.

If nothing else, I think it bodes very well for the upcoming season!

Shell....always the optimist! ;)

[Jeff O Rocks]

Shell....always the optimist! ;)

Shell will be standing there with her bloomers blown off and she will say..thank goodness the Canes have a game in two weeks! :laugh: :p

[Caniac]

Every new projected path has it turning more north. I'm hoping it'll end up just skirting the coast with the hurricane force winds being offshore.

I feel better about it all the time.

[Shell]

indeed Caniac, the picture I posted earlier is already dramatically different... it was straight at Raleigh, and now it has NC in the southern reaches

[Jillsdad]

One thing to remember fellow campers is that the strongest quadrant of the hurricane is always the northeast side. If the latest track is the eventual track, except for the outer banks(oh god), the entire state will be to the west of the center, thus on the weaker side. I still am thinking they will shift it a little more east and NC will just receive a glancing blow(even the outer banks). On a lighter note, the waves this monster will be generating should make the surfing excellent on the NC coast for the next few days.

[JaroFan]

I'm trying to put things in perspective. Anyone remember what category Fran & Floyd were when they came ashore?

[StormShaman]

I'm trying to put things in perspective. Anyone remember what category Fran & Floyd were when they came ashore?

Fran was a 2 when she hit landfall, IIRC. Floyd I believe was either a high 1 or a low 2.

[Jillsdad]

Fran was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph sustained winds with gusts to 130. Floyd was a strong category 2 storm after weakening significantly from a strong 4 when it crossed the bahamas.

[Jeff O Rocks]

I know we have no control over these things, but I am starting to worry! :sad: Too many memories!!

[JaroFan]

Me too, Mona! I will need to make the decision if I want to stay in this house with the huge trees i've got! :crazy:

[Caniac]

It's down to 125 mph. That's not so bad, relatively.

Having ridden out every storm to hit the NC coast (on the NC coast) since 1978, I can say from experience that 125 is significantly better than 140. I know 15 mph seems like "So what? It's still strong", and it is, but unless you're right at the eye, it's not so bad, and even then it's not tooo strong.

If it continues to hold at 125, or weakens more, I am only worried about the storm surge.

Caniac (Breathing tentative and more than likely premature sigh of relief)

[opuntia]

You know, I grew up in South Florida, and I have been through more and worse hurricanes in NC than in Florida (about the same number of years spent in each). As someone put it to me today, NC has its butt sticking right out in the ocean with a "Hit Me" sign on it.

My preparations for the storm? I am baking a whole bunch of chocolate chip cookies to see us through.

[Turbulence]

My preparations for the storm? I am baking a whole bunch of chocolate chip cookies to see us through.

I wish everyone I knew prepared that way... :D

I guess this means I'll have to shell out a 20 spot for gas tomorrow...

[Shell]

http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20030915/capt.1063654309.hurricane_isabel_ht102.jpg
Hurricane Isabel is shown in this image from television taken from the international space station (news - web sites) as it orbits over the storm Monday, Sept. 15, 2003. (AP Photo/NASA TV)

http://us.news1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/rids/20030915/i/1063664920.2885713960.jpg
A view of the eye of Hurricane Isabel is shown in this image taken from the International Space Station (news - web sites), September 15, 2003. U.S. East Coast residents prepared Monday for one of the most powerful storms in recent memory as Hurricane Isabel whirled through the Atlantic toward possible landfall Thursday in North Carolina. Isabel's top winds weakened slightly to 125 mph (205 kph) as it took a path that could bring it ashore near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and north along the Chesapeake Bay near Washington D.C., through Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (news - web sites) said.

http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20030915/capt.1063654336.tropical_weather_wx110.jpg
NOAA satellite image of the East Coast of the U.S., a possible target of very dangerous Hurricane Isabel, taken at 12:45 p.m. EDT on Monday, Sept. 15, 2003. Homeowners stocked up on batteries, plywood and duct tape Monday while Navy officials huddled to decide whether to send Atlantic Fleet ships to sea to ride out Hurricane Isabel. The storm weakened slightly early Monday but still packed powerful Category 4 winds of 150 mph as it swept across the Atlantic Ocean. (AP Photo/NOAA)

[Caniac]

Down to 115. :)

Now I'm not worried at all. Been through MUCH worse than that unscathed.

This thing has turned into what people home call a "mullet blow".

Caniac (Whew!)

[Shell]

call me paranoid if you like, but I don't think we're out of the woods yet. They are not expecting it to weaken any more in the next 24 hours, and most hurricanes pick up a lot of energy when they cross the gulf stream.. Keep in mind it only takes 4-6 hours for it to strengthen back to what it was... I do hope your right, but I will be prepared nonetheless!! :)

[Guyute]

I'm being tentatively optimistic. :crazy:

I'm very glad to have seen the strength weaken, and the eye begin to fall apart, thanks to the shear. but, as shell said, it still has to cross the gulf stream, which will feed it some more energy.

if it stays on it's projected path, I think the Triangle is pretty safe (tropical storm effects is probably what we'd see).

[cmw00]

Just as long as we get to see Kiss saturday night!


ohyeah and aerosmith

[Guyute]

Do we have anyone here with any contacts in Moorehead? That's where we were supposed to be going this weekend. I'd sure like to get some firsthand knowledge on Thursday of what happens there.

Isabel is down to 105mph currently. nice.

[Jeff O Rocks]

Do we have anyone here with any contacts in Moorehead? That's where we were supposed to be going this weekend. I'd sure like to get some firsthand knowledge on Thursday of what happens there.

Isabel is down to 105mph currently. nice.

My step-brother is in Emerald Isle...not sure if he will evacuate or not...if I hear anything from him, I will pass it along! ;)

I hope it continues to weaken...the hurricane watch is showing from Cape Fear to the Outer Banks...Fran was supposed to take a similar path as this one, but at the last minute she took a turn and came in at Cape Fear...that is when we all got in trouble!! :sad: I won't breathe a sigh of relief until this storm is up the east coast! :roll:

[Guyute]

thankya dear. probably be better for him to evacuate though. I was thinking Moorehead was a little further south than it actually is... that's pretty much right in the projected path. :crazy:

I was hoping that this would weaken enough that maybe the guys would still run their boat on saturday. but I'm starting to doubt that.

[Caniac]

My parents live about 10 miles from Morehead. Now that it has dropped to 105, no one is really all that worried anymore.

The power may go out, but I doubt there will be much in the way or carnage. You could probably still head down there if there isn't any flooding on Friday between Raleigh and the coast. Kinston usually floods real bad, but other than that, no worries.

[Staal-aholic]

I am in Jacksonville, outside Camp Lejune on the coast, no evacutation for us but we are supposed to get some heavy winds. The kick in the pants is the $17 plywood at Lowe's.

[nccanes]

My parents live about 10 miles from Morehead. Now that it has dropped to 105, no one is really all that worried anymore.

The power may go out, but I doubt there will be much in the way or carnage. You could probably still head down there if there isn't any flooding on Friday between Raleigh and the coast. Kinston usually floods real bad, but other than that, no worries.

I guess I'm not cut out for life on the coast during a hurricane.

This is a blurb about Fran:

Fran was moving northward near 15 knots when it made landfall on the North Carolina coast. The center moved over the Cape Fear area around 0030 UTC 6 September, but the circulation and radius of maximum winds were large and hurricane force winds likely extended over much of the North Carolina coastal areas of Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Onslow and Carteret counties. At landfall, the minimum central pressure is estimated at 954 mb and the maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 100 knots. The strongest winds likely occurred in streaks within the deep convective areas north and northeast of the center.


Now, 100 knots translates into about 115mph. For some reason I'm thinking the folks in Wilmington/Wrightsville would rather never see those wind speeds again.

[Caniac]

I rode out Fran. It wasn't so bad. :)

I've ridden out some that were around 125 mph sustained winds that weren't that bad. My parents' place is on the water, but it's a protected area up a creek that empties into Core Sound. I wouldn't want to be on the beach during a hurricane that's 125 mph, but it isn't bad anywhere else.

Now had it stayed 140+, then it's time to go.

[nccanes]

I've ridden out some that were around 125 mph sustained winds that weren't that bad. My parents' place is on the water, but it's a protected area up a creek that empties into Core Sound. I wouldn't want to be on the beach during a hurricane that's 125 mph, but it isn't bad anywhere else.

Now had it stayed 140+, then it's time to go.

Okay cool. Makes more sense now!!

[CaniacManiac]

Now, 100 knots translates into about 115mph. For some reason I'm thinking the folks in Wilmington/Wrightsville would rather never see those wind speeds again.

How right you are, nccanes. I, for one, never want to experience something like that again. I still remember hearing a tree in my front yard being ripped from the earth and not even being able to look outside to see what was going on because the windows were covered in plywood. nope, not a good experience.

CaniacManiac

[Jeff O Rocks]

I still remember hearing a tree in my front yard being ripped from the earth and not even being able to look outside to see what was going on because the windows were covered in plywood. nope, not a good experience.



To be in a storm in a house with the windows boarded shut and hearing trees being ripped out of the ground would be the end of me...when Fran came through...our power was gone, it was pitch black, our batteries died in the radio (was totally NOT prepared) and I could hear the shingles being ripped off the roof..one by one...that was enough for me..NO MORE HURRICANES here..unless they skate!! ;)

[talkingcanes]

We have an office in Morehead and staff that live in Morehead City. They are closing down the office and evacuating. I believe it was presented to them as a good idea by law enforcement.

Fran was a nightmare. I could hear trees ripping out of the ground and falling, but had no idea where they would land. That is not a good feeling. The path of Isabel should keep the Raleigh area more out of harm's way than Fran's path. And I would not be happy with 2 weeks of no electricity or phone again, not to mention trees from the neighbors on both sides ending up as "mine" :roll:

[JaroFan]

I don't care how low the winds drop, as long as it's classified as a hurricane, i'm worried about all these trees that were weakened from the ice storm! I'll keep all of you in my thoughts!

[RIO]

I'm trying to put things in perspective. Anyone remember what category Fran & Floyd were when they came ashore?

Fran was a 2 when she hit landfall, IIRC. Floyd I believe was either a high 1 or a low 2.


Fran was a very strong 3 and ran straight over Raleigh. They were tracking it on street-level Doppler that night and the eye tracked right up through my frikkin' neighborhood. I remember that like it was yesterday. I vowed to NEVER sit through anything of that magnitude EVER again. It was terrible. But Jillsdad is right. This is looking alot better than it was even a few days ago and we'll be on the better side of the trouble. So everyone look out for each other and pray for everybody.

[Jeff O Rocks]

I don't care how low the winds drop, as long as it's classified as a hurricane, i'm worried about all these trees that were weakened from the ice storm! I'll keep all of you in my thoughts!

I am with you JaroFan...I am scared!! I will keep you and everyone else in my thoughts as well...everyone stay safe!

[Caniac]

I want to go home just to sit on the front porch and watch it now. :)

Seriously, this thing has turned into a pissant.

:)

[Shell]

easy to say from Charlotte boss :p

[Guyute]

yeah, there are enough damaged trees still standing, from the ice storm. trees that took damage that you can't see, and won't know about, until a good sustained wind pushes on it for a few hours. that's not good.

[Caniac]

My parents are on the water in Carteret County. I've ridden out way worse.

This storm has been pre-emptively pwnt.

[nccanes]

Wake County schools are closed tomorrow.

[raleighcanesfan]

Beat me to it nccanes. Great. As an insider, we were told a decision wouldn't be made until after 5:30 (for the 6 o clock news)

great. A day to make up already. We'll be going until July this year.

[nccanes]

Beat me to it nccanes. Great. As an insider, we were told a decision wouldn't be made until after 5:30 (for the 6 o clock news)

great. A day to make up already. We'll be going until July this year.

Heh. It was on the wcpss.net website!

Looks like Mr. NCCanes and I will get breakfast out one Saturday morning - my kids make up school on Saturdays (year round)!!

[JaroFan]

Sweet! I'm a teacher!

Don't worry, our make up day is Oct. 6, not tacking on to summer yet!!

[raleighcanesfan]

Sweet! I'm a teacher!

Don't worry, our make up day is Oct. 6, not tacking on to summer yet!!

Yeah, but wouldn't it be nice to have one workday in a year. Grrr...and we start the new K-5 report cards this year.

[JaroFan]

Sweet! I'm a teacher!

Don't worry, our make up day is Oct. 6, not tacking on to summer yet!!

Yeah, but wouldn't it be nice to have one workday in a year. Grrr...and we start the new K-5 report cards this year.

Oh that stinks for you. I have friends at Weatherstone that do that. Oct. 6 was all workshops for me, so i'm kind of happy! Plus the kids would have been off their rockers if we'd gone tomorrow.

Good luck everyone! Don't forget to bring in your patio stuff!

[nccanes]

Check out this photo. My sister sent it to me, so I don't have the original/credit, but it's a photo of Isabel....


http://www64.pair.com/efrancis/isabel.JPG

[talkingcanes]

Wow! That's an impressive picture.

I have a friend whose parents live in Ahoskie and they are being told they won't have electricity for 4-6 weeks. Every power line is under layers of trees.

[Jeff O Rocks]

Wow! That's an impressive picture.

I have a friend whose parents live in Ahoskie and they are being told they won't have electricity for 4-6 weeks. Every power line is under layers of trees.

That is so sad........what are they going to do?? Are there plenty of shelters?? :sad:

[nccanes]

Wow! That's an impressive picture.

I have a friend whose parents live in Ahoskie and they are being told they won't have electricity for 4-6 weeks. Every power line is under layers of trees.

With all do respect to Caniac, it just goes to prove that even a Cat 2 'pissant' storm is a devasting blow to our state (lives, damage, inconvenience, economy, public money, etc.).

If we get a Cat 4 coming, I'm getting the hell out of Raleigh! :eek2:

[Caniac]

Storm surge is unpredictable.

Part of my parent's home got flooded. It's not that big a deal, but an inconvenience at least.

On the wind and rain scale, this storm was a PISSANT. Anyone who says different is an idiot. Hurricane Hazel and even Fran were worse storms than this one, however they didn't have the surge involved.

I call any storm that comes into our state and only kills 2 people a "minor storm".

[talkingcanes]

Wow! That's an impressive picture.

I have a friend whose parents live in Ahoskie and they are being told they won't have electricity for 4-6 weeks. Every power line is under layers of trees.

That is so sad........what are they going to do?? Are there plenty of shelters?? :sad:


They bought a couple of generators to keep the frig going and some lights and TV at night. They will also be visiting their children frequently! Hopefully, it won't take that long, but that is the estimate as of last weekend when everyone in the family was down there trying to clean up a little. Fortunately, their house didn't sustain much damage so they can stay there.

[Shell]

I agree with you Eileen.. oh, on that picture.. that one and the one that usually goes with it:

http://www.snopes.com/photos/graphics/isabel2.jpg

Are not iIsabel.
Origins: Meteorologists (including Dr. Steve Lyons, the Weather Channel's hurricane expert) agree that the photos displayed above are not pictures of any hurricane at all, much less Hurricane Isabel, which struck the eastern United States in September 2003 — they depict shelf clouds or wall clouds typically associated with severe thunderstorms and tornadoes rather than hurricanes, and the water in the first picture appears too smooth for the area of an approaching hurricane. (Even if these images did depict the approach of a hurricane, they're too old to be photographs of Hurricane Isabel — these same pictures were circulating as photographs of Hurricane Claudette back in July 2003 and of Cyclone Indigo in April 2003.)

Some believe the photographs to have been taken in the midwestern U.S. or Great Lakes region, although at least one source identifies the first image as being a picture of Tropical Cyclone Graham, which hit northwest Australia in February 2003.

[Jeff O Rocks]

Wow! That's an impressive picture.

I have a friend whose parents live in Ahoskie and they are being told they won't have electricity for 4-6 weeks. Every power line is under layers of trees.

That is so sad........what are they going to do?? Are there plenty of shelters?? :sad:


They bought a couple of generators to keep the frig going and some lights and TV at night. They will also be visiting their children frequently! Hopefully, it won't take that long, but that is the estimate as of last weekend when everyone in the family was down there trying to clean up a little. Fortunately, their house didn't sustain much damage so they can stay there.

I am glad they have some help.. I wonder if some trips to help out will be organized?? I work for the State and they had signups for people to go and help the Floyd victims...helping to rip up carpet and clean walls ...anything that needed to be done.... I remember all too well how lost we all were here after Fran.. :sad:

I am sure the folks that lost a loved one or lost their home and everything in it, don't consider Isabel to be minor... :sad:

[nccanes]

I agree with you Eileen.. oh, on that picture.. that one and the one that usually goes with it:


Thanks Shell, I had my doubts. My sister isn't usually one to send around bogus stuff, but her daughter is, lol. I wondered if it came via my niece. I was in a hurry this morning and didn't have time to check it out myself (or ask her the source).

I couldn't figure out why the ship was anywhere near it to begin with, lol. :laugh:

[talkingcanes]

whatever it is, it is still an impressive picture.

[Jillsdad]

Ok Caniac, I have to call you on this one. How many deaths does it take for a storm to be considered serious in your book. I was not aware they ranked hurricanes on death scale. By the way it is four people dead now just in NC and over 30 nationwide. What does this make it a Category one on the death scale. Floyd was only a two when it made ladfall but I dare say you tell anyone east of 1-95 that it was a pissant.

[Caniac]

LOOK

MY FU*KING PARENTS LIVE THERE. ON THE COAST. I LIVED THERE FOR 24 YEARS OF MY LIFE. I WENT THROUGH WAY WORSE STORMS, WIND AND WIND DESTRUCTION WISE THAN THIS ONE

THE STORM SURGE WAS BAD. I STATED THAT

BUT THE STORM ITSELF WAS NOT.

HOW HARD IS THAT TO UNDERSTAND? SERIOUSLY.

ALSO 1 OF THE 4 KILLED (AND LAST I HAD CHECKED IT WAS 3) IN NC WAS AN ELECTRIC WORKER WHO DIED AFTER THE STORM IN AN ELECTRICAL ACCIDENT. THESE THINGS HAPPEN ALL THE TIME.

AND HOW MANY DEATHS DOES IT TAKE FOR A STORM TO BE SERIOUS? A HELL OF A LOT MORE THAN 4.

ALSO, I'VE BEEN THERE SINCE, I'VE HELPED CLEAN UP SEVERAL FLOODED HOMES. AND I'M GOING TO BE THERE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. CLEANING UP MORE. HOW MANY HAVE YOU CLEANED UP? HUH? HOW MANY ARE YOU GOING TO? THAT'S WHAT I THOUGHT. I KNOW WHAT THE FU*K I'M TALKING ABOUT.

AND I WAS EAST OF I95 FOR FLOYD. DON'T TALK TO ME LIKE I WASN'T THERE. I WAS RIGHT ON THE WATER AND WATCHED THE MOTHERFU*KER ALL NIGHT.

I AM NOT GOING TO TAKE THIS SH*T TODAY.

YEAH I'M HAVING A BAD DAY, BUT YOU PEOPLE NEED TO GET YOUR SH*T STRAIGHT BEFORE YOU CALL PEOPLE OUT, ESPECIALLY THE PERSON RUNNING AND FOOTING THE BILL FOR THE SITE YOU ARE ON.

EDIT - I'm not going to edit it out, but I would like to say that I made a huge ass out of myself with this post, and I'd like to apologize for it. I did exactly what a lot of people get banned for. 9/30/03

[Caniac]

Everyboby read that edit ^.