Silly Season!

[IceSun]

I know this technically doesn't begin until July 1, but that doesn't prevent us from speculating, planning, discussing rumors, and generally killing time until them.

I'll start with Chip's tweet today to keep us all optimistic...

Originally Posted by Chip Alexander @ice_chip

Rutherford again said team has financial resources to be in bidding for high-priced free agent n July.

[kermelbar]

So something that I (finally) wondered in my head this week ... If we do go after Parise/other, who do we likely let go of/ditch? I don't keep careful track of contracts, so I forget what it looks like for us this summer.

[andyt]

Originally Posted by kermelbar

So something that I (finally) wondered in my head this week ... If we do go after Parise/other, who do we likely let go of/ditch? I don't keep careful track of contracts, so I forget what it looks like for us this summer.

Including players in Charlotte or Florida

UFAs
Allen
Spacek
Roy
Brett Sutter
Soryal
Durno

RFAs
Tlusty
McBain
Welsh
Boychuk
Dadonov
Krueger
Bowman
M. Murphy
Terry
Lalonde-MacNicoll
Sanguinetti
Lawson
Peters
Pistilli
Blanchard
Samson

[MoBigRed]

Originally Posted by andyt

Including players in Charlotte or Florida

UFAs
Allen
Spacek
Roy
Brett Sutter
Soryal
Durno

RFAs
Tlusty
McBain
Welsh
Boychuk
Dadonov
Krueger
Bowman
M. Murphy
Terry
Lalonde-MacNicoll
Sanguinetti
Lawson
Peters
Pistilli
Blanchard
Samson

That's a boatload of roster spots, to be sure, with only a few that i'd say would definitely be back (with a handful of others in the 'maybe' category).

UFAs, i'd say Allen and Spacek kind of depend on what happens in the Suter/somebody-else Sweepstakes, and i'd expect Checkers captain Sutter to be re-signed. The others have their strengths, but who knows?

RFAs...

Goaltender-wise, from what JR said, i'd expect Peters back, and hopefully Murphy as well. If any goaltender is let go, i'd honestly expect it to be Boucher through trade, due to potential returns.

Blueliners... Sanguinetti has earned a spot, i think, and McBain's going nowhere. Anyone else - who knows?

As far as forwards, Bowman i think has proven his worth, and i'd expect to see him back. From everything i've seen and heard over the past 2 seasons, i'd expect Boychuk to be the opposite. Not sure about Samson either. Tlusty will be back, and i'd expect Welsh back as well. They'd be crazy to let Terry go. But the rest, there's a lot of room to play there. Factor in possible trades elsewhere and making room for a top-line winger shouldn't be an issue.

Unless, of course, JR re-signs everyone and we end up with another glut... but somehow i don't see that happening this time around.

[nccanes]

Originally Posted by MoBigRed

Blueliners... Sanguinetti has earned a spot, i think, and McBain's going nowhere. Anyone else - who knows?

JR was on camera at the final game (pre game interview with Harwood) and he listed his top 4: Gleason, Faulk, Pitkanen, McBain.

Doesn't mean that the top 4 can't shift via trade, I guess.

I wish we'd seen more of Sanguinetti (or hell, even more of Joslin on D) this season, but with Murphy and Dumoulin in the pipeline, seems like they have their work cut out. I know Dumoulin doesn't necessarily follow the trajectory of Faulk, but every talk like he's more NHL ready than Faulk when he arrived.

[andyt]

Originally Posted by MoBigRed

That's a boatload of roster spots, to be sure, with only a few that i'd say would definitely be back (with a handful of others in the 'maybe' category).

UFAs, i'd say Allen and Spacek kind of depend on what happens in the Suter/somebody-else Sweepstakes, and i'd expect Checkers captain Sutter to be re-signed. The others have their strengths, but who knows?

RFAs...

Goaltender-wise, from what JR said, i'd expect Peters back, and hopefully Murphy as well. If any goaltender is let go, i'd honestly expect it to be Boucher through trade, due to potential returns.

Blueliners... Sanguinetti has earned a spot, i think, and McBain's going nowhere. Anyone else - who knows?

As far as forwards, Bowman i think has proven his worth, and i'd expect to see him back. From everything i've seen and heard over the past 2 seasons, i'd expect Boychuk to be the opposite. Not sure about Samson either. Tlusty will be back, and i'd expect Welsh back as well. They'd be crazy to let Terry go. But the rest, there's a lot of room to play there. Factor in possible trades elsewhere and making room for a top-line winger shouldn't be an issue.

Unless, of course, JR re-signs everyone and we end up with another glut... but somehow i don't see that happening this time around.

I agree on Spacek/Allen; it depends on who, if anyone, JR signs as a UFA. I think Allen is more likely to be back than Spacek unless Joslin gets thrown into a trade, then Spacek can be re-signed as a cheap #7 dman. Of the UFAs in Charlotte, I suspect only Brett Sutter will be re-signed. I don't think Soryal and Durno have NHL contracts, so that's likely moot anyway. Of the RFAs, all are coming off their entry level deals except for Tlusty, McBain, Sanguinetti, Peters, Blanchard and Samson. I expect that all of those will get a QO...it's free and they're not arbitration eligible. I think Blanchard can elect Group 6 free agency. He turns 25 on May 31 and hasn't played 80 NHL games. Peters lost his Group 6 eligibility when he played his last game for the Canes; the game requirement for goalies is less than 28 games. He's played 28 on the nose. JR indicated to Gold and Ovies that Peters still has a shot as Ward's backup next year though, otherwise Peters and Murphy may be in a death match in Charlotte to determine the backup for the 13-14 season.

[ontheboards]

Bryan Allen was difficult to resign mid season last year/heading to the trade deadline when there was no one knocking on our door to get him. He's the team's NHLPA rep going into a collective bargaining year-- I don't see him staying.

[Convert]

In Charlotte, I'd like to see a combo of Murphy and Muse --unless Anderson is coming over from Europe--then all bets are off.

I think the Checkers need some combo of youth and experience...they might be too young this year. They tried Roy as the d-man vet and that did not work out. Soryal was well regarded (4th line, energy, enforcer) but Durno has been disappointing to me). Think they need Blanchard and a couple other veteran leaders. But regardless they have a lot of folks coming in (Sutter, Rask, Welsh, Hoffman (maybe), Dumoulin, Levi, Murphy -if he is not too young, and I may be missing others), so big turnover in that roster.

But for both, its all about changing the balance of team. Right now, both are too balanced--with too many of the same type of guys on.

Ignoring contracts, here is what I'd like to see (ideal world):

1st: Staal - New Scoring Winger - New Playmaker/Physical Forward
2nd: New Center - Skinner - Ruutu
3rd: Sutter - Jokinen - LaRose
4th : Brent - Dwyer - New Physical Forward

Odd men out: Tlusty, Nodl, Stewart (we could keep one if we also had a decent enforcer and carried 14.

Existing Possibilities: Welsh, Bowman

Not convinced on Bowman, Dalpe, Boychuk, etc. being the answer yet. Bowman I would slot with Sutter, but not sure he bring more than Jokinen or LaRose (and no longer convinced that he has a big upside). Also possibility that you play Jussi with Staal and Parise (etc), but he has to perform better than this year.

Defense:

Top Pair - New Guy - Faulk (if we get Suter)
2nd - Gleason - Allen (resign)
3rd - Harrison - McBain/Murphy

7th: TBD (Joslin, Sanguinetti)

Odd Men Out - Joni (move him to get more offensive talent), McBain

Give Dumoulin a season in Charlotte, with some games in the bigs based on injuries

And since I have been this long winded, here are my complete thoughts on Free agents:

UFAs:
Try to Re-sign - Allen, Sutter
Let go: Roy, Durno,
On the fence: Spacek (if we don't sign Allen and need a solid 7th dman), Soryal (Based on health and roster mix in Charlotte)

RFAs:
Sign: Welsh, McBain, Krueger, Murphy, Terry, Sanguinetti, Blanchard, Samson,
Trade, if possible, (if not qualify): Tlusty, Boychuk, Dadonov, Bowman, Peters
Let go: Lalonde-MacNicoll, Lawson
On the Fence: Pistilli

[ontheboards]

I do not see this organization getting rid of PItkanen. JR likes him and considers him in the top four. Only way he's unloaded is if they get an offer they can't refuse.

[KaniacFever]

Originally Posted by kermelbar

So something that I (finally) wondered in my head this week ... If we do go after Parise/other, who do we likely let go of/ditch? I don't keep careful track of contracts, so I forget what it looks like for us this summer.

My guess either Stewart, Nodl or Dwyer (and I don't see Dwyer going anywhere).

From listening to JR these last few days, I take it he's real hellbent on that top teir winger for Staal, moreso than bringing in say a Suter. Personally I don't see much change in the line up. I also think they are pretty high on Welsh, and he'll be on the team next season.

As of today, I'm guessing something like this, which of course is subject to change after July 1st

Tlusty-Staal-Top tier winger (Parise hopefully)
Skinner-Welsh-Ruutu
Bowman-Sutter-Jokinen
Dwyer-Brent-LaRose
Stewart

Gleason-Faulk
Pitkanen-McBain
Harrison-Joslin/Murphy/Dumo
Joslin or a checker

Ward
Boucher

In all those tweets yesterday I did see how Allen was offered a contract but was rejected. Not surprised there. We want a discount, he likely doesn't. Also saw that Spacek wants to return. So if we do end up resigning Spacek, he could be the 7th D and that could make Joslin expendable or we give Murphy and Dumo a year in Charlotte. Can Murphy play in Charlotte or is it back to Kitchner?

So all in all, I don't see a big change in the roster. I'm actually pretty surprised JR is being very open about going after a top tier winger. Its not like him to say those things. Makes me wonder if he might be doing something via trade at the draft.

[c-girl]

Can Murphy play in Charlotte or is it back to Kitchner?

He just became 19 years old on March 31 so I think that means he would be Charlotte eligible although it wouldn't surprise me if he made the Canes roster. I would think his Kitchner days are over.

[nccanes]

I'm curious about the comments about the "7th D". With CLT just down the road and our history of NOT having spare scratches hanging about (this year being an exception), would we really need another NHL regular as a 7th D? Or could someone like Dumolin and Sanguinetti (is he still waiver exempt?) be more likely?

[ontheboards]

I'm sticking this here-- it's as good a place as any. The NHL draft lottery is on tonight (Tuesday 4/10/2012) at 8PM on NBCSN. Mentioning it if anyone is interested.

[SouthernHockeyChick]

I'm curious about all the line-ups I see here which break up what I thought was one of our best lines all year---some combo of Sutter/Dwyer/Nodl/Bowman. I don't see Jokinen as a 4th line player either but, his butt sure does not belong on what is supposed to be our shut-down line.

I really like having a third line as the shut-down group. IMO, if there isn't a spot in the top 6 for Jokinen then there isn't a spot on this team for Jokinen. Then the question is, has his play earned a top 6 spot?

[MoBigRed]

Originally Posted by nccanes

JR was on camera at the final game (pre game interview with Harwood) and he listed his top 4: Gleason, Faulk, Pitkanen, McBain.

Doesn't mean that the top 4 can't shift via trade, I guess.

I wish we'd seen more of Sanguinetti (or hell, even more of Joslin on D) this season, but with Murphy and Dumoulin in the pipeline, seems like they have their work cut out. I know Dumoulin doesn't necessarily follow the trajectory of Faulk, but every talk like he's more NHL ready than Faulk when he arrived.

Kind of makes you wonder how there's room to bring in or keep anyone on D, huh? You're right - JR has his (current) top 4, with two hot prospects on the way. And that doesn't count Harrison, who was perhaps the team's most-solid defenseman this season. Due to the hype laid on our 'future core' or McBain/Faulk/Dumoulin/Murphy, i expect Sanguinetti and Joslin are already against the firing wall, and that doesn't take into account one or more of Allen/Spacek/PlayerX being here next season.

Gleason
Faulk
Pitkanen
McBain
Harrison
Allen/Spacek/PlayerX
7th - Joslin

I put Joslin 7th because i don't see them stunting Dumoulin or Murphy's growth as healthy extras in Raleigh. So we have a Charlotte core of

Sanguinetti
Dumoulin
Murphy
Rissanen
Bellamore
Jordan
Sova

I think at the very least we can consider Roy and Krueger as doubtful (if not Sanguinetti), unless some trades happen elsewhere to make room for them. And i'm not sure any of this makes either team that much better.

[Convert]

Originally Posted by SouthernHockeyChick

I'm curious about all the line-ups I see here which break up what I thought was one of our best lines all year---some combo of Sutter/Dwyer/Nodl/Bowman. I don't see Jokinen as a 4th line player either but, his butt sure does not belong on what is supposed to be our shut-down line.

I really like having a third line as the shut-down group. IMO, if there isn't a spot in the top 6 for Jokinen then there isn't a spot on this team for Jokinen. Then the question is, has his play earned a top 6 spot?

I broke it up because they simply don't score enough to be a third line. I don't think we can afford a non-scoring shutdown line

[nccanes]

Originally Posted by MoBigRed

And that doesn't count Harrison, who was perhaps the team's most-solid defenseman this season.

Yeah, that's what kind of puzzled me about JR's statement (and yes, totally over-analyzing a brief interview) because it wasn't a specific question, but rather an open-ended question about looking toward next year when he said he was happy with the top-4 D (I was actually expecting the answer to be about how he was happy with "the core" that he's been saying for the last few years) and then went on to list the 4 I named.

I can't imagine he's thinking of moving Harrison given his price point and he perhaps he's not considered a top 4 D, but it seemed a little disingenuous to list out the top 4 and not talk about how well Faulk had played alongside Harrison.

Generally I've grown to hate the 'predictions' that are made because they don't ever seem to pan out (Boychuck to replace Whitney, Dalpe with a legit shot at our top 6, etc...), so color me cautious with this "pairing of the future" in Gleason and Faulk....it's like it's by decree rather than performance.

/snarky

[KaniacFever]

Originally Posted by SouthernHockeyChick

I'm curious about all the line-ups I see here which break up what I thought was one of our best lines all year---some combo of Sutter/Dwyer/Nodl/Bowman. I don't see Jokinen as a 4th line player either but, his butt sure does not belong on what is supposed to be our shut-down line.

I really like having a third line as the shut-down group. IMO, if there isn't a spot in the top 6 for Jokinen then there isn't a spot on this team for Jokinen. Then the question is, has his play earned a top 6 spot?

I could reading too much into it, cause I've been known to do that, I've got a wild imagination, but, from what I took out of JRs comments yesterday, it appears they are high on Welsh and appears Sutter will be moved up to be the 2nd line center with Welsh centering the 3rd.

[caveman]

Kid Caveman would be pretty sad to see Stewart go. After nobody picked him up on waivers, he was a much better contributor, energy wise.

[MoBigRed]

Originally Posted by caveman

Kid Caveman would be pretty sad to see Stewart go. After nobody picked him up on waivers, he was a much better contributor, energy wise.

With Stewart under contract for next season, JR's pretty much stuck with him unless he can package him off in a trade or someone claims him off waivers, right? My question - can he play in Charlotte? There aren't enough Hurricane forward FAs to make much room for the new acquisitions JR's wanting to make, and Stewart looks to be one of the most-likely 'odd-men out'. Maybe he takes Samson-Boychuk's place in Charlotte - i wouldn't be at all surprised to see one or both of them tossed to the 'not in our future plans' pile.

Honestly i only see a couple situations that would have Stewart in Raleigh next year - 1) JR can't find the guys he wants so he sticks with the status quo, or 2) JR has to trade away somebody to get the player he wants, and Stewart takes his spot.

[nccanes]

I would imagine he could play in CLT, but he'd be an expensive guy down there. But yes, would be an option (presuming he'd agree to report).

[superdave]

Originally Posted by KaniacFever

I could reading too much into it, cause I've been known to do that, I've got a wild imagination, but, from what I took out of JRs comments yesterday, it appears they are high on Welsh and appears Sutter will be moved up to be the 2nd line center with Welsh centering the 3rd.

That's kind of the take I got from that, too.

I hate having to play "Let's throw it at the wall again and see what sticks" yet again this summer. As I look into the crystall ball, I see the following...

1st line: Tlusty/Staal/Winger "X" (that we have wanted for so long)
I think the 1st line is the only one we know for sure, and one of those players isn't on the team yet.

2nd line: Ruutu/Sutter/Skinner
I feel that the Canes are high enough on Welsh to have him slotted as a top 9 center and that Sutter is moving up.

3rd line: LaRose/Welsh/Nodl or Dwyer
JR wants a shutdown line. LaRose isn't going anywhere and one of Nodl/Dwyer takes the other spot.

4th line: Player "Y"/Brent/Player "Z"
Player "Y" and "Z" aren't on the squad or in the system. I think Muller would like to get tougher on the 4th line and I agree. Dwyer may stick here if the right guy was found for the other side.

If you have noticed, there isn't a spot for Jussi or Stewart with this lineup. Stewart hasn't taken a spot and I think Jussi is the odd man out on a numbers game if JR and Muller insist on using the 3rd line for the shutdown group. There is also one of Nodl/Dwyer that doesn't make the cut for the 3rd line. That leaves JR with having to sign a top line forward and 2 skilled tough guy/penalty killers for the 4th. He also needs to do something about Jussi, Stewart, and Nodl/Dwyer (although it wouldn't surprise me to see Dwyer as one of the 4th liners). I don't see this as the year that a current Checker forward makes a jump into the mix.

Let me think some more on the "D".

[MoBigRed]

Originally Posted by superdave

If you have noticed, there isn't a spot for Jussi or Stewart with this lineup. Stewart hasn't taken a spot and I think Jussi is the odd man out on a numbers game if JR and Muller insist on using the 3rd line for the shutdown group. There is also one of Nodl/Dwyer that doesn't make the cut for the 3rd line. That leaves JR with having to sign a top line forward and 2 skilled tough guy/penalty killers for the 4th. He also needs to do something about Jussi, Stewart, and Nodl/Dwyer (although it wouldn't surprise me to see Dwyer as one of the 4th liners). I don't see this as the year that a current Checker forward makes a jump into the mix.

I have seen or heard talk of a third scoring line with a 4th-line shutdown along the lines of Dwyer/Brent/Nodl. Haven't a clue now where i saw/heard it, but i quite like the concept if we have the talent to do it. In that case, there's definitely room for Jokinen on the 3rd line, though after the disappointing season he had last season, i'd almost rather see new blood there as well. But something like

Tlusty/Staal/Winger "X"
Ruutu/Sutter/Skinner
LaRose/Welsh/Jokinen
Nodl/Brent/Dwyer

isn't bad for a baby step (i want to see more change than that, but that's at least a start, if we can play better all-around defensively). But even there, Stewart's already out of the mix and Samson/Boychuk are headed for the highway.

[Convert]

If we do get a scoring winger, not sure I see Tlusty staying on the top line. Might be a better role from Jussi, if he shows his play from a year or two ago v. his play this year.

[andyt]

Originally Posted by Convert

If we do get a scoring winger, not sure I see Tlusty staying on the top line. Might be a better role from Jussi, if he shows his play from a year or two ago v. his play this year.

I think it depends on who Winger X is. Staal is a shoot first center, unlike guys like Spezza, Weiss and Thornton. Say what you want about him missing Cole, I think the guy he misses the most is Stillman. If Winger X is of the same mindset as Staal, I can see Jussi on the other wing. He's easily the best passing forward on the team.